人民币/美元汇率的玄机
One of the last key variables for world markets that responds to government control is the Chinese exchange rate. So, Many investors are now trying to read the mind of Chinese officials.
中国的汇率是世界市场上对政府控制作出反应的最后几个关键变量之一。因此,许多投资者现在正试图揣摩中国官员的心思。
For years, China had allowed the yuan to rise steadily against the dollar. This pleased the US, and made Chinese exports less competitive, while removing heat from the Chinese economy.
几年来,中国一直允许人民币对美元稳步升值。这种做法使美国满意,也使中国出口的竞争力有所减弱,同时还有助于中国经济降温。
That steady appreciation came to an abrupt halt in early July. Since then, despite all the titanic forces moving world markets, the yuan-dollar exchange rate has barely moved.
这种稳步升值在7月初突然停止。自那以来,尽管各种力量排山倒海地冲击着世界市场,但人民币兑美元的汇率几乎没动。
But this applies only to the dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the yuan continued to rise, particularly against other Asian currencies. But there has been active depreciation against the Japanese yen.
但是,这只适用于美元。在贸易加权基础上,人民币继续升值,尤其是相对于其它亚洲货币,但相对于日元则出现明显贬值。
This combination logically entails that the dollar must rise against other currencies, and that the yen must do so even more. That in turn implies the end of the “yen carry trade” – in which investors borrowed in yen and parked in higher-yielding currencies. Given that the weak dollar was correlated with the strong oil price, it also implied that the oil price would fall.
按逻辑,这种组合意味着美元相对于其它货币必然升值,而日元的升值幅度还要大。这进而意味着“日元套利交易”(即投资者借入日元资金,然后兑换成高利率的货币储蓄)的终结。鉴于弱势美元曾与强劲的油价关联,这还意味着油价会下跌。
And, indeed, the oil price started to fall, the dollar started to rise, and the yen carry trade started to lose money, in July, just as China’s currency stopped rising against the dollar.
果然,油价开始下跌,美元开始升值,日元套利交易开始赔钱。这一切都发生在7月,恰逢中国人民币停止对美元升值。
What theories explain this? One is that it was China’s best way to get oil prices down. Another suggests it is down to broader foreign policy – being a good neighbour by letting the currency rise against other Asian currencies. And with the Chinese economy slowing down, it was a sensible move to administer some stimulus. Some investors believe it may have been a message to Candidate Obama, who wanted China to be named a currency manipulator.
哪些理论能够解释这种情况?理论之一是,这是中国压低油价的最佳途径。另一种理论提出,这都可归因于考虑范围更广的外交政策:做一个好邻居,让人民币对其它亚洲货币升值。还有,随着中国经济开始减速,出台一些刺激措施实为明智之举。一些投资者还相信,这可能是向美国总统候选人奥巴马发出的一个信号,奥巴马想把中国定性为“汇率操纵国”。
Whatever the truth, a further implication is that oil could rise, and the dollar fall, once yuan appreciation resumes.
无论真相为何,这也进一步意味着,一旦人民币恢复对美元升值,油价可能上升,而美元对其它货币将会贬值。
重点词汇:
appreciation 升值 On a trade-weighted basis 以贸易加权汇率衡量
currency [ˈkʌrənsi] n.通货,货币;通行,流行 entail [inˈteil] vt.使承担,使成为必要,需要
implication [ˌimpliˈkeiʃən] n.含意,暗示,暗指;卷入,牵连
manipulator [mə'nipjuleitə] 操纵器,操作者
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