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[ 本帖最后由 Alicewang1104 于 2008-12-13 20:49 编辑 ]
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中国节奏的金融改革

中国节奏的金融改革



全球信贷危机已足够让任何一个新兴市场放弃这样一种观念,即复杂的资本市场产品是本国企业用以融资的明智工具。但在中国——现代资本市场勉强有一代人之久的地方,人们可以预期,这种反弹可能更加显著。


The global credit crisis has been enough to put any emerging market off the notion that sophisticated capital market products are wise tools with which to finance their corporations.But in the case of China - where modern capital markets are scarcely a generation old - the backlash could be expected to be even more pronounced.


中国股市在1990年才向公众开放,截至去年10月份的两年时间内,暴涨了6倍,但从那以后就一路下跌,已经跌回了约三分之二。如此巨大的跌幅已经引发了一场辩论,即北京是否应彻底放弃证券,退回到通过银行融资这一旧模式为仍在迅速增长的经济提供融资。


China's stock market , which was opened to the public only in 1990, shot up six-fold in the two years to last October, but has since fallen back by around two-thirds.That sharp decline has provoked debate about whether Beijing should give up on equities altogether, and revert to a much older model of bank financing for an economy that is still growing rapidly.


但迄今为止,几乎没有迹象显示,中国已经放弃了股市。全球市场的混乱已经明显使北京对自己的信念有了底气,即谨慎应该成为股票市场监管者的座右铭。不过,人们几乎没有感觉到中国已放弃了最终放开其资本市场的目标。


But so far, there is little sign that China has given upon the stock market. Chaos in world markets has clearly made Beijing feel vindicated in its belief that caution should be the byword of equity market regulators.But there is little sense that China has abandoned its goal of liberalising its capital markets - eventually.


中国最大的保险公司中国人寿(China Life)首席投资官刘乐飞在最近的一次采访中告诉英国《金融时报》:“中国将会非常谨慎,因为它的市场非常不成熟。一些金融衍生品现在不适合中国。”西方外交官表示,信贷危机加强了中国政府内部保守派的势力,这些人认为中国缺乏监管复杂金融产品的能力。但他们表示,中国的长期目标仍是创建类似于西方的更加成熟的资本市场。



"China will be very cautious because its market is very immature," Liu Lefei, chief investment office of China Life, the country's biggest insurer told the FT in a recent interview. "Some financial derivatives are not appropriate for the Chinese market now." Western diplomats say the credit crisis has strengthened the hand of conservatives within the government who say China lacks the capacity to regulate sophisticated financial products. But they say China's long-term goal remains the creation of more sophisticated capital markets along western lines.



的确,中国一位主要金融官员最近告诉英国《金融时报》,全球危机甚至有可能会加快改革的步伐。
上海市政府金融服务办公室主任、上海证交所前副总经理方星海最近表示:“这次的教训并不是美国进行了过多的创新,所以我们根本不应进行创新……所有这些复杂的产品都只是垃圾的说法是错误的。”



Indeed, one of the country's leading financial officials recently told the FT that the global crisis could even accelerate reform.
Fang Xinghai, director general of the Financial Services Office of the Shanghai municipal government, and a former deputy chief executive of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, said recently: "The lesson is not that there were too many innovations in the US and so we should not innovate at all. . . It is wrong to say that all these sophisticated products are just bad things," he said.


他表示,中国应从美国的教训中了解金融创新包含何种风险,从而对这些风险加以防范,然后以“适当”的步伐进行创新。不过,中国监管者对“适当”时机的理解颇具讽刺意味:就在西方世界对金融创新产生空前信任危机,一些发达市场宣布禁止或限制股票卖空交易之际,中国却于10月份宣布,将批准股票融资融券交易。


China should learn from the US what risks are involved in financial innovation, protect against them - and then innovate at a pace that is "appropriate", he said.But the Chinese regulators' notion of an "appropriate" time displays a fine sense of irony: at just the moment when the west was suffering an unprecedented crisis of confidence in financial innovation - with several developed markets halting or restricting short selling of equities - China announced in October that it would allow short sales and margin trading of shares.


与以往一样,中国正按照自己的步伐前进——而且,尽管前进的步伐可能并不快,却很稳健。中国官员不断重申,为帮助中国股市超越近年繁荣与萧条的周期循环,走向成熟,允许融资融券交易和金融期货交易很有必要。但他们同样强调,他们希望按照自己的节奏行动,而且首先要采取措施,尽可能降低风险。


As always, China is marching to its own drum - and, although the march may not be rapid, it is steady.Officials continually reiterate that short selling, margin trading and financial futures trading are necessary to help China's equities markets mature beyond the boom-and-bust cycles of recent years. But they make it equally clear that they want to do things at their own pace - and only after taking steps to mitigate as much risk as possible.


在推出股指期货交易方面,有大量迹象表明,监管部门态度很谨慎。中国股市监管机构——证监会(CSRC)主席尚福林最近在一次采访中告诉英国《金融时报》,股指期货是“成熟市场的必要组成部分”,但补充道:“指数期货可能是把双刃剑……高杠杆可能导致高风险。”尚福林表示“风险控制一向是证监会的重中之重”,补充称,只有“当时机成熟时”,证监会才会批准推出股指期货。



There is ample sign of regulatory caution when it comes to the introduction of futures trading. Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the stock market regulator, recently told the FT in an interview that stock index futures are a "necessary component of a mature market", but added: "Index futures can be a double- edged sword. . . high leverage can lead to great risks." Mr Shang says that "risk control is always the top priority of CSRC", adding that the regulator will approve the launch of index futures only "when the time is right".



经过多年等待之后,市场观察者已心灰意冷。中国在两年前就建立了一家金融期货交易所,但该交易所至今仍未推出第一款产品。但股市分析师和决策者都认为,无论未来数月会面临何种考验——分析师预计,在这段时间中国股价会在当前水平徘徊——中国政府别无选择,只有坚持长期改革。



After years of waiting, market watchers have become disillusioned. China established a financial futures exchange over two years ago, but it has yet to launch its first product.But whatever the trials of the next few months - when analysts expect Chinese shares to languish at around current levels - Beijing has little alternative but to persist with reforms in the long term, stock market analysts and policymakers agree.


在这个缺乏全面养老保险体系的国家,中国政府清楚,它将需要更有深度、更好发挥功能的资本市场,以满足中国退休者的需求。归根结底,那才有可能维持对股票和股市改革的热情,远远超越由西方市场混乱而引起的短期信任危机。


In a country without a comprehensive pension system, Beijing knows it will need deeper and better functioning capital markets, to satisfy the needs of the Chinese pensioner. In the end, that is likely to sustain enthusiasm for equities and stock market reform - well beyond any short-term crisis of confidence provoked by chaos in western markets.


重点词汇:

notion  [ˈnəuʃən]   n.概念,观念;意图,想法,(怪)念头
emerging market    新兴市场
put off    推迟,推延;阻止,劝阻
finance  [fai'næns, fi-]    n. 财政,财务  v. 供给...经费,负担经费
backlash  ['bæklæʃ]     n. 反斜线
pronounced  [prəˈnaunst]    a.明显的
scarcely  [ˈskeəsli]   ad.几乎不,简直不;决不;刚刚,才
shot up     迅速增长
provoke  [prəˈvəuk]     vt.对…挑衅,激怒;激起,引起
equity  ['ekwiti]     n. 权益,产权,股本;证券  n. 公平,公正
altogether  [ˌɔ:ltəˈgeðə]    ad.完全,全部地;总之;总共
revert  [ri'və:t]     v. 恢复,复归,回到
vindicate [ˈvindikeit]vt. 1. 证明...无辜,为...辩白 2. 维护  3. 证明...正确;证实;辩明    4. 【废】为...报仇
byword      n. 1. 俗语;谚语  2. 笑柄  3. 绰号  4. 代词(代号)
insurer  [in'ʃuərə]     n. 保险公司,承保方
derivatives  [di'rivətivz]    派生物
lesson  [ˈlesən]    n.(功)课;一堂(节)课[ pl.]课程;教训
unprecedented  [ʌnˈpresidentid]   a.空前的
reiterate  [ri:ˈitəreit]    vt.重申
boom-and-bust      繁荣与萧条   一时性繁荣
mitigate  ['mitigeit]     v. 镇静,缓和,减轻  v. 缓和
ample  [ˈæmpəl]   a.足够的;宽敞的,面积大的
Stock Index Futures   股票指数期货 即,股指期货
leverage  [ˈli:vəridʒ]   n.力量,影响;杠杆作用,杠杆的力量
Double-edged sword   双刃剑
disillusion  [ˌdisiˈlu:ʒən]  vt.使不再抱幻想,使理想破灭
languish  ['læŋgwiʃ]    v. 憔悴,凋萎,苦思

[ 本帖最后由 Alicewang1104 于 2008-12-13 20:36 编辑 ]
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美国能源部:明年全球石油需求将锐减

美国能源部:明年全球石油需求将锐减



Global oil demand will collapse next year and commodities will not return to the highs they reached this summer in the foreseeable future, two authoritative reports said yesterday as they forecast a long and painful worldwide recession.


昨日发表的两份权威报告表示,明年全球石油需求将锐减;在可预见的将来,大宗商品价格不会重返今年夏季触及的高位。两份报告均预测,全球将经历一次漫长而痛苦的衰退。


The stark conclusions came as the World Bank’s chief economist predicted that the world faced “the worst recession since the Great Depression”.

上述严酷的结论出炉之际,世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家预计,全球面临“自大萧条(Great Depression)以来最严重的衰退”。


The US energy department said global oil demand will fall this year and next, marking the first two consecutive years’ decline in 30 years. “The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices,” it said, forecasting that demand would drop 50,000 barrels a day this year and a hefty 450,00 b/d in 2009. US oil demand will drop next year to the lowest level in 11 years.


美国能源部表示,今明两年全球石油需求均会下降,这将是30年来首次出现连续两年下降的情况。“全球经济长期萧条的可能性日益加大,继续主导着市场心态,这对油价构成了下行压力。”美国能源部表示,并预测今年全球石油日需求量将下降5万桶,而明年将猛降45万桶;明年美国石油需求将降至11年来最低水平。


Meanwhile the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, said the commodities boom of the past five years – which drove up prices 130 per cent – had “come to an end”.


与此同时,世界银行的《全球经济展望》报告指出,持续5年的大宗商品牛市——将价格推高了130%——已经“告终”。



The World Bank’s analysis of the commodities boom contrasts with the prevalent view among natural resources companies – and most Wall Street analysts – that the ongoing price drop is a temporal correction within an upward trend.


世界银行对大宗商品牛市的分析,与自然资源公司(以及多数华尔街分析师)盛行的观点形成鲜明对照,后者认为,目前的价格下跌是上升趋势中的短暂回调。


Although it ruled out a return to the torrid high prices of this summer, it said commodities prices would not fall back to the 1990s depressed levels.


尽管世界银行排除了大宗商品价格重返今夏极高水平的可能性,但该行也表示,大宗商品价格不会回落至上世纪90年代的低迷水平。



重点词汇:

commodity  [kə'mɔditi]     n. 商品,日用品
in the foreseeable future   在不久的将来,不久


stark  [stɑ:k]   a.荒凉的;严酷的;完全的 ad.完全地
consecutive  [kənˈsekjutiv]  a.连续的,连贯的
likelihood  [ˈlaiklihud]    n.可能,可能性
perception  [pəˈsepʃən]   n.感知(能力),觉察(力);观念,看法
downward  [ˈdaunwəd]   a.向下的,下行的 ad.[-(s)]向下地,下行地
hefty  [ˈhefti]    a.强壮的,笨重的
drive up         . 使...上升
prevalent  [ˈprevələnt]  a.流行的,普遍的
ongoing  ['ɔngəuiŋ]     a. 前进的,进行的  n. 前进,举止,行为
rule out     把…排除在外,排除…的可能性
torrid  [ˈtɔrid]    a.酷热的
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为何拯救银行?

为何拯救银行?

各国政府正成为本国金融机构的主要股东。英国政府拥有两家抵押贷款机构——Bradford & Bingley和北岩(Northern Rock)、持有苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)多数股权,并可能成为哈利法克斯苏格兰银行(HBOS)与劳埃德TSB(Lloyds TSB)合并后集团的最大股东。美国政府持有全球最大保险公司之一美国国际集团(AIG)多数股权,并将很快获得花旗集团(Citigroup)类似规模的股权,这将令美国政府成为最大金融机构。富通银行(Fortis)和荷兰银行(ABN Amro)现在由比利时、荷兰、卢森堡政府所有,等等

Governments of the world are becoming major shareholders in their financial institutions. The British government owns two mortgage lenders – Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock – is likely soon to hold a majority of the capital of the Royal Bank of Scotland, and to be much the largest shareholder in the combined HBOS/Lloyds TSB. The US government has a dominant holding in AIG, one of the world's largest insurers, and will soon hold a similar position in Citigroup, making it the biggest financial institution of all. Fortis and ABN Amro are owned by Benelux governments. And so on.


早期的社会主义者肯定在坟墓里窃笑。但政府绝对控股并不代表社会主义优于资本主义,而是意味着面对资本主义的失灵,实用主义是必要的。政府并不想持有这些股权,也不十分确定该如何处置这些股权。


Early socialists must be chuckling in their graves. But this government control of the commanding heights does not represent the triumph of socialism over capitalism, but the necessity of pragmatism in the face of failures of capitalism. Governments do not want to own these stakes, and are not quite sure what to do with them.



被国有化的金融机构往往经营不善,不能很好地服务于所有者和客户。但最近的经验表明,私人所有的金融机构也往往经营不善,不能很好地服务于所有者和客户。有人可能辩称,私营企业对客户的服务好于对所有者的服务;国有企业对所有者的服务好于对客户的服务。马克思会说,这就是资本主义的内在矛盾。


Nationalised financial institutions have often been badly run businesses which served neither their owners nor their customers well. But recent experience has shown that privately owned financial institutions have often been badly run businesses which served neither their owners nor their customers well. One might argue that the private businesses served their customers better than their owners; while the state-owned ones served their owners better than their customers. Such are the inherent contradictions of capitalism, as Marx would have put it.


英国政府可能拥有最清晰的战略。它成立了一个名为英国金融投资有限公司(UK Financial Investments)的机构。其用意在于:该机构应作为这些公司相对被动的股东,以便于将持股迅速变现。该机构以5年前成立的国有股东事务管理局(Shareholder Executive)为模板,持有政府在其它公司的股权。国有股东事务管理局的报告读上去有点像私人股本公司为客户编写的更新材料。



The British government has perhaps the clearest strategy. It has set up an organisation called UK Financial Investments. The intention is that UKFI should act as a relatively passive shareholder in these businesses with a view to a quick realisation. UKFI is modelled on the Shareholder Executive established five years ago to hold government stakes in other companies. The reports of the Shareholder Executive read rather like the updates a private equity house might prepare for investors.



但这个答案还不够。国有股东事务管理局的这些报告存在明显的问题。政府拥有英国皇家邮政(Royal Mail)和核能除役管理署(Nuclear Decommissioning Authority)等公司是有原因的。实施国有化的理由是,这里涉及巨大的公共利益,不仅表现在从这些活动中得到的财务回报,还表现在企业经营什么和如何经营。政府与所控股企业的关系没有、不可能也不应该像私人股本所有者那样。



But this answer is not adequate. The problems are evident in these reports from the Shareholder Executive. The government owns businesses such as Royal Mail and the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority for a reason. The rationale of public ownership is that there is a strong public interest, not just in the financial returns from these activities, but in what these businesses do and how they operate. The government does not, cannot and should not have the same kind of relationship with the companies it owns as a private equity owner.


这并不意味着,成立国有股东事务管理局是一个糟糕的想法。在私人股本专业人士和投资银行家日常考虑的问题上,政府部门的官员通常表现得无知且天真;他们需要加强专业技能。但尽管政府有作为投资者的利益,但这不能成为其唯一的利益:如果这是唯一利益的话,政府就根本不应成为投资者。



That does not mean that the Shareholder Executive is a bad idea. Officials in government departments are often ignorant and na?ve when faced with issues that are the day-to-day concern of private equity professionals and investment bankers; their expertise needed reinforcement. But while the government has an interest as investor, that cannot be its only interest: if it were the only interest, then government should not be an investor at all.



银行也是如此。政府不会对Woolworths进行资本重组,因为该公司是否持续经营对广泛经济领域无关紧要。政府向银行注资是因为,支付体系的继续运作和中小企业获得融资关系到重要的公共利益。因此,政府入股的主要目的不是确保纳税人能够收回投资——尽管这个问题肯定不应忽视——而是确保这些普通的银行职能能够运转良好。



So with banks. The government will not recapitalise Woolworths because it matters little to the wider economy whether or not Woolworths stays in business. The government does recapitalise banks because there is a vital public interest in the continued operation of the payment system and the availability of finance to small- and medium-size businesses. So the primary purpose of the investment is not to ensure that the taxpayer gets its money back – although that issue should certainly not be neglected – but to ensure that these ordinary banking functions operate well.



但如今与小企业所有者交谈过的人士都不可能认为,这个目的正得到实现。如果在光景好的时候,企业太容易得到贷款,那么在困难时期,它们就会太难得到贷款。贷款限制的后果正令经济中的非金融行业陷入衰退。如果人们对于获得抵押融资感到担忧——这种担忧应该存在——那么停止英国政府所有的这两家抵押贷款银行的非常高效率的抵押管理活动就是荒谬的。出于一个特定目的,我们纳税人已拯救了这些金融机构,我们应利用我们在这些机构的股权,坚决要求这一目的要得到实现。



But no one who talks to small business owners today can believe that that objective is being met. If it was much too easy to get loans in the salad days, it is much too difficult to get them in the locust years. The consequences of the loan restrictions are plunging the non-financial economy into depression. If there are concerns over the availability of mortgage finance – and there should be – then it is absurd to run down the very efficient mortgage administration activities of the two mortgage banks the British government owns. We taxpayers have rescued these financial institutions for a specific purpose, and we should use our stakes in them to insist that this purpose is fulfilled.
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人民币/美元汇率的玄机

人民币/美元汇率的玄机

One of the last key variables for world markets that responds to government control is the Chinese exchange rate. So, Many investors are now trying to read the mind of Chinese officials.

中国的汇率是世界市场上对政府控制作出反应的最后几个关键变量之一。因此,许多投资者现在正试图揣摩中国官员的心思。

For years, China had allowed the yuan to rise steadily against the dollar. This pleased the US, and made Chinese exports less competitive, while removing heat from the Chinese economy.


几年来,中国一直允许人民币对美元稳步升值。这种做法使美国满意,也使中国出口的竞争力有所减弱,同时还有助于中国经济降温。


That steady appreciation came to an abrupt halt in early July. Since then, despite all the titanic forces moving world markets, the yuan-dollar exchange rate has barely moved.


这种稳步升值在7月初突然停止。自那以来,尽管各种力量排山倒海地冲击着世界市场,但人民币兑美元的汇率几乎没动。


But this applies only to the dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the yuan continued to rise, particularly against other Asian currencies. But there has been active depreciation against the Japanese yen.


但是,这只适用于美元。在贸易加权基础上,人民币继续升值,尤其是相对于其它亚洲货币,但相对于日元则出现明显贬值。


This combination logically entails that the dollar must rise against other currencies, and that the yen must do so even more. That in turn implies the end of the “yen carry trade” – in which investors borrowed in yen and parked in higher-yielding currencies. Given that the weak dollar was correlated with the strong oil price, it also implied that the oil price would fall.


按逻辑,这种组合意味着美元相对于其它货币必然升值,而日元的升值幅度还要大。这进而意味着“日元套利交易”(即投资者借入日元资金,然后兑换成高利率的货币储蓄)的终结。鉴于弱势美元曾与强劲的油价关联,这还意味着油价会下跌。


And, indeed, the oil price started to fall, the dollar started to rise, and the yen carry trade started to lose money, in July, just as China’s currency stopped rising against the dollar.


果然,油价开始下跌,美元开始升值,日元套利交易开始赔钱。这一切都发生在7月,恰逢中国人民币停止对美元升值。


What theories explain this? One is that it was China’s best way to get oil prices down. Another suggests it is down to broader foreign policy – being a good neighbour by letting the currency rise against other Asian currencies. And with the Chinese economy slowing down, it was a sensible move to administer some stimulus. Some investors believe it may have been a message to Candidate Obama, who wanted China to be named a currency manipulator.


哪些理论能够解释这种情况?理论之一是,这是中国压低油价的最佳途径。另一种理论提出,这都可归因于考虑范围更广的外交政策:做一个好邻居,让人民币对其它亚洲货币升值。还有,随着中国经济开始减速,出台一些刺激措施实为明智之举。一些投资者还相信,这可能是向美国总统候选人奥巴马发出的一个信号,奥巴马想把中国定性为“汇率操纵国”。


Whatever the truth, a further implication is that oil could rise, and the dollar fall, once yuan appreciation resumes.

无论真相为何,这也进一步意味着,一旦人民币恢复对美元升值,油价可能上升,而美元对其它货币将会贬值。



重点词汇:

appreciation  升值

On a trade-weighted basis    以贸易加权汇率衡量

currency  [ˈkʌrənsi]   n.通货,货币;通行,流行

entail  [inˈteil]   vt.使承担,使成为必要,需要
implication  [ˌimpliˈkeiʃən]   n.含意,暗示,暗指;卷入,牵连
manipulator  [mə'nipjuleitə]    操纵器,操作者
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亚洲股市观望气氛浓厚

Caution reigned across the region’s stock markets yesterday as investors awaited the latest interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve and quarterly earnings from Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank.
昨日,谨慎气氛笼罩亚洲股市,投资者等待美联储(Fed)的最新利率决定,以及美国投资银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)公布季度业绩。
Rate cuts were also on investors’ radar screens in China after the governor of the central bank said the country would face pressure to lower borrowing costs until the middle of next year.
此外,中国降息也在投资者的关注范围之中,此前中国央行行长表示,在明年中之前,中国将面临降低贷款成本的压力。
This was underlined by a report from the Xinhua news agency that profits at state-owned companies had dropped 26 per cent in the first 11 months of the year.
新华社有关中国国有企业今年前11个月利润下滑26%的报道,更增强了上述预期。
The Shanghai composite index edged up 0.5 per cent to 1,975.01 points, having fallen 1.8 per cent. Property stocks and some financials ended the day higher, with Poly Real Estate rising 7.3 per cent to Rmb18.34, Citic Securities 2.4 per cent to Rmb21.47 and insurance company Ping An 1.2 per cent to Rmb27.30.
上证指数收盘升0.5%,至1975.01点,盘中一度下跌1.8%。地产股及部分金融股收高,其中保利地产(Poly Real Estate)升7.3%,至18.34元人民币;中信证券(Citic Securities)升2.4%,至21.47元;保险股中国平安(Ping An)升1.2%,至27.30元。
The market was weighed down by China Cosco, the shipping company, whose shares lost 5.2 per cent to Rmb8.78 after the company said it was expecting losses from its hedging strategy.
大盘受到船运股中国远洋(China Cosco)的拖累,该股下跌5.2%,至8.78元,此前该公司表示,预计将因对冲策略而遭受损失。
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.6 per cent higher at 15,130.21 points and the index of China Enterprise stocks – or H shares – gained 0.7 per cent to 8,063.75 points.
香港市场上,恒生指数上涨0.6%,收于15130.21点,中国企业指数(简称国企指数,或H股)涨0.7%,至8063.75点。
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美联储降息令美元英镑暴跌

美联储降息令美元英镑暴跌

The dollar and sterling plunged and government bond yields in the US and Europe fell to multi-decade lows as investors tried to digest the implications of the Federal Reserve’s new near-zero interest rate policy.
随着投资者试图消化美联储(Fed)最新零利率政策的含义,美元和英镑大跌,美国和欧洲政府债券收益率跌至数十年低位。
The US currency suffered its biggest one-day slide against the euro since the birth of the single European currency in January 1999 as the euro jumped from under $1.40 to above $1.44.
美元兑欧元汇率出现自1999年1月欧元诞生以来最大的单日跌幅。欧元兑美元汇率由1欧元兑1.40美元之下,劲升至1.44美元以上。
The yen powered higher, dragging the dollar to a 13-year low of nearly Y87 despite speculation that Tokyo could intervene to limit the rise in its currency and calls for the Bank of Japan to act more aggressively.
日元走强,拖累美元兑日元汇率跌至近87日元的13年低位,尽管市场猜测日本政府可能入市干预,以遏制日元升值,并呼吁日本央行(BOJ)采取更为有力的行动。
Following the Fed meeting on Tuesday, which reduced interest rates to a range of zero to 0.25 per cent, US rates are now lower than those in Japan for the first time since 1993.
在周二会议上,美联储将利率下调至0至0.25%区间,美国利率水平自1993年以来首次低于日本。
The US currency has now given up a significant chunk of the gains it made in September and October as the credit crisis escalated and there was a global surge in demand for dollar liquidity and a flight for safety in US Treasury bonds.
目前美元已回吐在9至10月录得的大部分涨幅,当时信贷危机升级、全球对美元流动性的需求激增以及资金逃向美国国债避险等因素,均推升了美元汇率。
Expectations that the Bank of England would cut rates more aggressively than the European Central Bank and could even follow the Fed into unorthodox territory sent the pound tumbling nearly 3 per cent to £0.9257 against the euro, a record low.
市场预期,英国央行(BOE)将采取比欧洲央行(ECB)力度更大的降息举措,甚至可能追随美联储,将利率降至非常水平。这导致英镑兑欧元汇率大跌近3%,至1欧元兑0.9257英镑的创纪录低点。
In the US, investors flocked to longer dated bonds, buoyed by the Fed statement that it is evaluating plans to buy Treasuries. The Fed also said it stood ready to increase its plans for hefty purchases of mortgage debt.

在美国,受美联储有关其正评估买入国债计划的声明刺激,投资者蜂拥买入期限较长的国债。美联储还表示,随时准备扩大其大量买入抵押贷款债务的计划。

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LEX专栏:中国也挺不住了?

LEX专栏:中国也挺不住了?

人们害怕的事故终于发生了。近10年来,中国一直在提高制造能力,大量生产廉价商品,从而帮助推动全球增长,但现在中国正陷入困境。周三发布的官方数据扫除了任何疑点。外国人减少了在华投资,还减少了从中国的进口:11月份外商直接投资同比下跌三分之一,而出口同比减少2.2%,这是2002年2月以来首次同比减少。连通缩都成了一种可能性,因为11月份的年度生产者价格通胀猛跌至2%,不到10月份数据的三分之一。



The accident waiting to happen has happened. China, having helped propel global growth by tooling up and churning out cheap goods for much of the past decade, is crumpling. Official data released on Wednesday removes any doubt. Foreigners are investing and buying less: November foreign direct investment fell by a third from a year earlier while exports fell 2.2 per cent, the first year-on-year decline since February 2002. Deflation is even a possibility, with annual producer price inflation plunging to 2 per cent in November, less than one-third the October reading.



中国比多数国家都坚持了更长时间;毕竟,相当大部分的发达世界已经在衰退状态中,而许多发展中国家正在悬崖边上挣扎。不过,既然现在中国也开始“刹车”,随着中国工业化所需的石油、铁矿石以及其它所有大宗商品的需求收缩,涟漪效应是不可避免的。澳大利亚是较早的受害者。澳大利亚央行行长格兰·斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)就中国风险发出警告不到24小时后,该国矿业巨擘力拓(Rio Tinto)就宣布将裁员1.4万人。


China held out longer than most; much of the developed world is already in recession, after all, and a number of developing countries are teetering on the brink. Now that the brakes are coming on in China, however, a ripple effect is inevitable as demand for oil, iron ore and all the other commodities required to industrialise the country shrinks. Australia is an early casualty. Within 24 hours of central bank chief Glenn Stevens flagging the China risk, Aussie miner Rio Tinto unveiled plans to slash 14,000 jobs.


对中国本身来说,除了对失业的长期忧虑外,最大的担心在于资本逃离和通缩。外商直接投资和出口数据都说明发生了资本逃离。在繁荣时期,这些数据由于一些资金企图逃避资本管制而被“放大”:悄悄带进一张夸大金额的外商直接投资支票,或者对出口开具夸大金额的商业发票,使投资者能够押注人民币不断升值。如今,这种押注已部分失色,搭便车流入的资金也随之消失。与此同时,乐观人士对价格下跌不以为意,认为这是“好的”通缩:猪肉价格便宜了,消费者就有更多钱用于任意消费。



For China itself the big fears, in addition to perennial worries about unemployment, are capital flight and deflation. The FDI and export numbers allude to the former. Data are magnified on the upturn by funds trying to evade capital controls: sneaking in an inflated FDI cheque, or over-invoicing for exports, allowed investors to punt on an appreciating renminbi. Now that bet has lost some of its lustre those “piggy-backing” funds are disappearing. Falling prices, meantime, are dismissed by bulls as “good” deflation; cheaper pork frees up more money for discretionary spending.




但是,产能持续过剩将带来更阴暗的前景:价格减到不能再减的商品、受挤压的盈利空间和更多失业。上述两大担心都让中国央行伤脑筋,央行必须在不损及人民币汇率的情况下刺激需求。北京没有什么手段能够重振出口,但还是拥有可观的实力可投入提振国内需求:它有足够实力大动干戈一番,下令银行放贷,并限制资本流出。既然事故已经发生,要快速复苏,就要采取紧急对策。


But persistent over-capacity sets the stage for a gloomier prognosis: bargain-priced goods, squeezed profit margins and more unemployment. Both fears come home to roost with the central bank, which has to stimulate demand without undermining the currency. Beijing has few means of reviving exports, but a decent amount of ammunition to blow on boosting domestic demand: it can afford to pump prime, order banks to lend and curtail capital outflows. Now that the accident has happened, speedy recovery hinges on urgent treatment.
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数家银行曾向马多夫“支线基金”提供信贷

数家银行曾向马多夫“支线基金”提供信贷




[table][tr][td]Big banks from the UK, France and Japan helped investors treble or quadruple their bets on Bernard Madoff by lending billions of dollars to “feeder” funds, which placed their money with the alleged fraudster.
[/td][td]英国、法国和日本的大银行曾向投资于伯纳德•马多夫(Bernard Madoff)的多个“支线基金”放贷巨额资金,从而帮助投资者以三至四倍的杠杆比率,加码押注于这位涉嫌欺诈者。
[/td][/tr][tr][td]HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nomura and BNP Paribas lent the money without spotting a fraud, in at least one case without due diligence teams visiting Mr Madoff’s brokerage, which actually held the assets.
[/td][td]汇丰(HSBC)、苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)、野村(Nomura)和巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)在放贷过程中没有察觉任何欺诈行为,还至少有一次没有派遣尽职团队造访实际持有相关资产的马多夫的经纪公司。
[/td][/tr][tr][td]Banks including Nomura and Spain’s BBVA also helped create special “notes”, structured products that allow small investors or those barred from investing in offshore vehicles to put as little as $50,000 (

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中国需求推动租船费谷底反弹

中国需求推动租船费谷底反弹

One of the world’s key shipping markets has begun to recover from a slump, with a revival in Chinese demand for iron ore and coal pushing some average charter prices up almost threefold in the past week.
全球主要航运市场之一已开始止跌反弹。中国对铁矿石及煤炭的需求复苏,上周推动某些平均租船费上涨近2倍。
The revival in prices, after a disastrous six months for the industry in which charter rates fell nearly 99 per cent for the largest vesssels, could encourage shipowners to bring mothballed vessels back into service.
租船费回升,有望鼓励船东将闲置船舶重新投入市场。此前,该行业经历了灾难性的6个月,最大型船舶的租船费下跌了近99%。
One participant said yesterday that some owners were able to charge enough to cover the costs of operating Capesize ships, the largest dry bulk carriers. Average rates for these ships, which move coal and iron ore, have nearly tripled over the past week.
一位业内人士昨日表示,部分船东的收费已足以抵消运营好望角型(Capesize)船舶的成本。好望角型是最大型的干散货运输船,适用于运载煤炭和铁矿石。上周,此类船舶的平均租船费上涨了近2倍。
However, smaller ships have yet to show the same recovery as Capesize vessels.
但较小型的船舶尚未显示出好望角型船舶这样的复苏态势。
Average spot rates, or the cost of carrying a single cargo immediately, finished the week at $8,261 a day for Capesizes, according to figures from Pareto Dry Cargo, an Oslo shipbroker.
根据奥斯陆船舶经纪商Pareto Dry Cargo的数据,截止上周五,好望角型船舶的平均即期租船费为每日8261美元。
The previous week’s average was $2,763, one of the lowest yet seen. Pareto reported a long-term charter of a Capesize ship at $17,500 a day for a year, more than the daily basic operating costs of such a ship. Long-term charter rates are, unusually, higher than those in the spot market because of expectations that the spot market will recover.
此前一周的平均即期租船费为2763美元,为有史以来最低水平之一。Pareto公布,好望角型船舶的长期租船费(租期一年)为每日17500美元,高于此类船舶日均基本运营成本。长期租船费异乎寻常地高于即时租船费,是因为业内预期即期市场将会复苏。
Mark Richardson, head of futures at London-based Simpson, Spence & Young ship¬brokers, said the rise in prices was in part due to iron ore moving from Brazil and Australia to China. China had halted iron ore imports and relied on stockpiles because of falling steel demand and a dispute over prices with Brazilian producers.
伦敦船舶经纪商Simpson, Spence & Young期货主管马克•理查森(Mark Richardson)表示,租船费上涨,部分是受从巴西及澳大利亚到中国的铁矿石运输的推动。此前,由于钢铁需求下滑,加上与巴西生产商发生价格争议,中国停止了铁矿石进口,而依赖于库存。
The return of mothballed ships to the market could lead to a repeat of the over-supply which, combined with disappearing demand for coal, iron ore and wheat, depressed prices this year.
闲置船舶重返市场,可能导致供应过剩再现。今年以来,这种供应过剩,加上煤炭、铁矿石和小麦需求下降,压低了租船费

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