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5月28日
ASEAN, Indonesia and Myanmar
Forcing help on Myanmar
May 22nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
ASEAN needs to play a bigger role in its region, and Indonesia a bigger role in ASEAN
THREE long weeks after a cataclysmic cyclone struck Myanmar, something approaching an international relief effort is at last under way. The grotesque reluctance of the ruling junta to allow foreigners to help the desperate Burmese has shredded whatever vestige of respect it enjoyed internationally. It had long lost it at home. The decisive push into a more co-operative stance seems to have come in private from China and in public from the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the regional club that admitted Myanmar in 1997 and has been silently ruing the decision ever since.
For some in the region, this is a vindication of “the ASEAN way”, which favours brotherly advice over brow-beating, non-interference over intervention, and consensual deliberation over confrontational haste. They are wrong.
The agreement ASEAN forced on the junta this week is of course welcome. But in fact the unfolding catastrophe demonstrates that ASEAN's hands-off style is wholly inadequate. The “concessions” it has wrung from Myanmar's generals are too little, too late. ASEAN, and above all its biggest member, Indonesia, need to throw their weight around a bit more. Who knows how many lives have been lost as the generals blocked foreign aid and went ahead, in most of the country, with a farcical referendum on a new constitution designed to perpetuate their rule? Even now, far from enough help is getting through (see article). Many in the Irrawaddy delta area were malnourished anyway. The danger is high of a secondary disaster, of starvation and disease. The agreement with ASEAN will help lower this risk. But it still leaves unnecessary constraints on how much help the needy will get, how soon.
Indonesian lessons
The junta, perhaps genuinely ignorant in its remote capital city of how bad things are, believes the “emergency” is over, and the emphasis now should be on “recovery” and reconstruction. This helps explain why it has changed its tune somewhat on foreign aid—it believes that foreigners may find their worst fears misplaced; and it knows it needs billions of dollars for the recovery effort.
Also, however, the generals may fear the consequences of continuing to refuse aid. The very paranoia that made them deter foreign aid workers may feed delusions of foreign invasion. If ASEAN managed to convey to them that allowing aid in was a smaller threat to their rule than keeping it out, it is to be congratulated. The impetus seems to have come in part from ASEAN's own secretariat in Jakarta. This has traditionally been a feeble body of pen-pushers under a mild-mannered secretary-general, usually a senior regional official rewarded with the post as the crowning boondoggle in a career of not rocking the boat. But the present incumbent, Surin Pitsuwan, is rather different—a career politician, who, as Thailand's foreign minister, tried to steer ASEAN into a more activist role in troublesome member states, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. He is said to see the Burmese cyclone as the defining crisis of his tenure. If so, he is right, and deserves support.
The member states said to have been most supportive of an active ASEAN role are Singapore—always more attuned than the others to the group's international image—and also Indonesia. If this is a sign that Indonesia may be contemplating a regional role commensurate with its stature, it is to be welcomed. It has always, quietly, dominated ASEAN. Indeed, the block was formed in 1967 partly to tie Indonesia down in a Lilliputian web of regional commitments. Accounting for two-fifths of ASEAN's population and one-third of its GDP, it dwarfs the other nine members.
Under the 32-year dictatorship of Suharto, which ended ten years ago this week, Indonesia, in keeping with the traditions of Javanese statecraft, used its clout discreetly. Since the tyrant fell, it has hardly used it at all. This is a shame. Although others, notably Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore and Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, were more vocal exponents of “Asian values” of Confucian respect for the powers-that-be, Suharto was the poster child of the virtues of authoritarianism. Yet since his downfall, democracy has put down surprisingly deep roots (see article). Indonesia has become a different sort of model—of the transition from military to civilian rule, of openness and pluralism. It should use the influence it has in ASEAN both to promote these virtues, and to turn it into a club that enforces some minimum standards of decency on its members. However low those standards are set, Myanmar's junta, with its refusal to help save the lives of its own people, falls short.
东盟,印度尼西亚,缅甸
强制缅甸接受援助
东盟需要在东南亚地区发挥更大的作用;而印尼需要在东盟发挥更大的作用
强飓风袭击缅甸三周后,接近于国际援助的工作终于得以进行。执政的军政府拒绝国外人员进入国家帮助那些绝望的缅甸人民,这种有悖常理的做法已经使它在国际上受到的仅存一点尊重都丧失殆尽。在国内早已无受尊重可言。现在更加合作的态度看起来是中国私下里和东盟公开推动的结果。地区组织东盟1997年接纳缅甸加入以来,一直默默地后悔当初的决定。
对该地区的一些人来说,这正是“东盟方式”的一种证明,这种方式偏好亲切的建议而非指责,崇尚不干涉而非介入,倾向自愿商议而非草率对抗。这些都是错误的。
这个星期东盟达成强制军政府协议的当然倍受欢迎。但事实上,灾难发生以来的情况表明东盟不插手的做法根本起不到作用。从缅甸将军们那里获得的“妥协”太少,也太晚了。东盟以及最大的成员国印度尼西亚需要施加更大的影响力。就在他们限制外国救援进入,同时还一意孤行地在全国大部分地区进行闹剧般的对旨在延长其统治的新宪法的全民公投,谁知道又死了多少人了呢?即使现在,进入的援助还远远不够。在伊洛瓦底江三角地区的很多人都营养不良。发生饥荒和疾病流行的二次灾害的可能性很大。可是军政府对灾民需要多少援助,什么时候获得还设有不必要的限制。
印尼的教训
坐镇远处首都的军政府也许真的没有意识到情况有多么严重,它相信“紧急救援”已经结束,现在应该进入“恢复”和重建阶段了。这就解释了为什么它对外国援助的态度有所改变——因为它认为这样会使外国人觉得他们的担心是多余的;也明白它需要几十亿美元进行恢复重建工作。
然而,将军们也担心继续拒绝援助的后果。使他们禁止外国救援人员进入的多疑偏执也会助长担心外国入侵的臆想。如果东盟能设法向他们传达这样一个信息,那就是,比起阻止救援进入,允许救援的进入对他们的统治是个更小的威胁;那就值得庆幸了。这次的动力似乎部分来自于东盟设在雅加达的秘书处。东盟秘书处向来都是一个弱势机构,都是一些办公室工作人员,上面是一名举止温和的秘书长。秘书长一职通常都是该地区某个国家的高级官员担任,这个职位可以说是对他们任内安分守己的奖励。然而现任的这位大不相同,Surin Pitsuwan是一名职业政治家,他任泰国外交部长时曾试图推动东盟在对待某些问题较多的成员国,如缅甸和柬埔寨上采取更为积极主动的态度。据说,他把缅甸飓风看作是自己任期内的明确危机。如果真是这样,那么他是对的,也应该得到支持。
成员国当中表示最支持东盟扮演积极角色的是新加坡和印度尼西亚,比起其他成员国,新加坡总是同该组织的国际形象更加一致。如果这意味着印度尼西亚正在考虑承担同其国力、地位一致的角色,这可是件好事。印尼总是默默地领导着东盟。的确,1967年该组织成立部分原因就是为了在这个地区小国网里拴住印尼。印尼的人口和GDP分别占了东盟的五分之一和三分之一,使其它9国相形见绌。
苏哈托对这个国家长达32年的独裁统治,到这个星期已经结束了10年的。在他的统治下,印尼一直小心翼翼地使用着它的影响力,这符合特有的爪哇治国传统。而自从这位独裁者倒台后,印尼几乎就没有用过它的影响力。真是可惜。虽然该地区的其他领导人,比如新加坡内阁资政李光耀和马来西亚前总理马哈蒂尔是提倡对当局儒家式尊重的“亚洲价值观”的代言人,而苏哈托却是极权主义德行的典范。自从他下台以后,民主深深的扎根了。印度尼西亚成了另一类模范 —— 从军事统治过渡到民权治理,开放和多样性。它应该利用其在东盟的影响力既推广这些优点,同时也推动该组织对其成员国实行一些最低标准的行为准则。不管这些标准设的有多低,拒绝帮助拯救其人民缅甸军政府都无法企及。
cataclysm n.
地球表面上的巨变(如洪水, 地震等)
洪水, 泛滥
政治或社会上的任何巨变
渗出, 渗液; 猝变
rue n.<古>懊悔, 后悔, [植]芸香v.后悔, 悲伤, 懊悔
hands-off adj.不插手的, 不干涉的
farcical adj.引人发笑的,闹剧的,滑稽的
boondoggle vi.<美俚>做细小而无用的事n. 琐碎的工作
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