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听写、翻译记录：
Well the world financial market are entering a downturn. In the report by the international monetary fund says everal developed nations are Close to falling into recession.
Just a few months after a upgraded its global forecast the IMF is now lowing the expectations for global economy. It’s now expected to expend 3.9 percent. This year that’s down from just like 4 percent from the July forecast.The next year the slowdown will even more pronounce.
Well the world's financial markets are entering a major downturn and a report by the International Monetary Fund says several developed nations are close to falling into recession. Just a few months after it upgraded its global forecast, the IMF is now lowering expectations for the global economy. It's now expected to expand at 3.9% this year. That's down from just over 4% in its July forecast. Next year, the slowdown will be even more pronounced.
世界的金融市场正陷入大萧条，国际货币基金组织报告称，世界几个主要的发达国家经济正逐步陷入衰退。在imf提高对全球经济预期仅仅几个月后，它就开始降低对全球的经济的期望了。它预计今年全球经济增长幅度将达到3.9%，而在今年七月的预测时，增长幅度是超过4%的。明年经济减速将会更明显。
世界金融市场正在走进严重的低迷期，国际货币基金会(IMF)的一份报导指出几个发达国家已经离经济危机不远了。IMF在更新全球预测之后没几个月，它现在又降低了自己对全球经济增长的期望值。IMF目前预期今年的经济增长率能达到3.9%，低于7月份4%的预期。
Growth is expected for tow almost one by one percent to three percent. That would be the weakest level of growth since 2002. Bringing near the threshhold what IFM considers is a global recession.
Growth is expected to fall to almost, by almost 1% to 3% and that would be the weakest level of growth since 2002, bringing it near the threshold of what the IMF considers is a global recession.
增长速度甚至可能会达到1%到3%的水平。这将是自2002年以来最低的增长水平。这种增长水平意味全球经济已经接近imf所谓的全球经济衰退的边缘。
明年经济增速放缓趋势将会更加显著。增长率预期会下降到将近1%到3%，这一比率是2002年以来的最低增长率，接近IMF定义的全球经济危机的边界。
So the future of the global economy is looking pretty weak at the moment.
World mitrid economy has tried bailout, say, has tried interest rate cut what else they have an ushion that might improve current situation wll force.
So the future of the global economy is looking pretty bleak at the moment. The world's major economies have tried bailouts; they've tried interest rate cuts. What else do they have in their arsenal that might improve the current situation?
所以，未来全球经济现在看来是非常暗淡的。世界主要的经济体都开始尝试各种援助行动；他们也已经试过了降息。在他们的武器库里还有什么可以拿出来改进现有的状况呢？
全球经济现在看来前景黯淡。世界几大经济体已经出台救市计划；他们还在设法降低利率。他们的武库里究竟还有什么东西也许能用来改善当前的形势呢？
Inside joined by YUDEQUAN he is director and partner of deska investment management here in hongkong.
Well, for some insight on that, we're now joined by Edgar Chuan. He's managing director and partner of Descartes Investment Management here in Hong Kong.
为了更透彻的理解现在状况，我们请来了edger chuan。他是descartes投资管理公司香港机构的合伙人兼常务董事。
为了更清楚的了解，我们邀请到了埃德加·陈。他是香港笛卡尔投资公司的常务董事和股东。
A: ok.so we’ve seen all this piecemeal operations from the faith from the UK banking authorities. Sichuan get things moving now, this called right actions but the market still unconvinced if you look at what happened in stock market you and I Thursday. what else do government and central banks have that can throw at problem to try to turn the things around.
Edgar, good to have you back on the show.
很高兴您能再一次来到我们的节目
埃德加，很高心你能参加我们的节目
Edgar Chuan: Hi.
您好
埃德加·陈：嗨。
HOST: Ok, so we've seen all these piecemeal operations from the Fed, from the UK banking authorities to try and get things moving. Now there is coordinated rate action but the markets are still unconvinced if you look at what happened on the stock markets here in Asia today. What else do governments and central banks have that they can throw at this problem to try to turn things around?
好的，我们可以看到美联储和英国银行管理局采取的试图拯救经济的一系列行动措施。现在，他们采取了调控利率的政策，但是从今天亚洲股票市场的表现来看，市场对这些措施并不是很有信心。各国政府和中央银行到底还有什么办法可以应对现在的问题，并扭转经济下滑的趋势呢？
主持人：好，我们已经看到联邦储备系统和英国银行机构一个又一个的行动，他们在努力推动经济的发展。当前采取的是协调配合的行动，不过，如果你看一下今天在亚洲股票市场发生的事情，你会发现市场仍然无法让人放心。政府和央行还有哪些招数可以对付这个问题从而扭转局面呢？
B: I will think of the current market situation what is really like of it is not so much about interest rate, tow basic problem, one is the confidence, because the investors don’t have confidence do we have a lot of money on the sidelines. A lot of investors who have cash out you know, Earlier this year probably last year they are still waiting for a sideline for try to bowling fishing. Yet this is too early for them coming the second thing is that I think we need the government to come out a freezable guarantee
to really set a prize for those complicated, I would say the` exauted stuff they need to provide a floor.
So people would know where the bottom price is
EDGAR CHUAN: I would think given the current market situation what really lack of is not really so much about interest rate. It's two basic problems. One is confidence because investors do not have confidence because investors do not have confidence, and do we still have a lot of money in our sideline? Yes. A lot of investors who have cashed out you know earlier this year or probably last year, they are still waiting on the sideline to try to do some bottom fishing. But yet this is too early for them to come in. And the second thing is that I think we need a government to come out to first of all guarantee the liquidity. Second of all, to really set a price for those complicated I would say or exotic stuff basically they need to provide a floor so people will know where the bottom price is. 并不和利率有那么紧密的关系。
我认为，根据现在的情况来看，主要问题并不在利率的高低。这里有两个基本的问题。第一个是信心问题，因为投资者没有信心。许多钱是否在我们自己手里？是的。在今年早些时候或者可能在去年，许多投资者都已经将手中资产兑现，等待机会抄底。但现在还不是他们回来的时候。第二个问题我认为是政府应当首先出来承诺保证流动性，然后，为这些复杂、奇异的东西设定一个价格，从根本上讲就是政府要提供一个定价依据，在此基础上人们在知道底部价格在哪里。
埃德加·陈：我想以当前的市场形式来看，真正缺少的东西并不完全关乎利率的问题。有两个基本的问题。其中一个是信心的问题，因为投资者没有足够的信心，我们是不是还有很多钱来投资副业？答案是肯定的。你知道，今年早些时候或者大概是去年，很多投资者抽掉他们的股份，他们仍然袖手旁观，他们想来个谷底投资。不过他们要是现在就着手的话还为时过早。第二个问题，我认为首先需要一个政府出面来担保资产折现力。其次，我认为要给这些复杂的东西，或者说极不稳定的东西定个价，主要他们需要提供一个最低价，这样人们才会知道底价是多少。
How they do that? Have to Offer price for top against it they are talking about.
Yes , they would be basically have buy them over and house them.
This is the best way. This is like previously
So “really calls back the fate” have to do this?
HOST: So how do they do that? So they have to offer prices for these toxic assets you're talking about. They have to buy them all.
如何才能做到呢？他们必须给你说的这些有毒资产定价，并且把他们全买下来？
主持人：那他们是怎么做的呢？你刚才谈到他们得为这些不良资产提供价格。他们得全部买下这些资产。
EDGAR CHUAN: They will basically have to buy them over and house them because this is the best way to do it. It's just like previously…
HOST: So it really comes back to the Fed has to do this?
基本上，他们必须买下这些资产，收容这些资产。因为这是最好办法了，就像以前………….
那就是说又回到了这个话题：美联储必须做这件事。
主持人：那么就是说得联邦储备系统来做这件事了？
埃德加·陈：基本上他们会全部买空，保留这些资产，因为这是最好的方式。就像以前……
I would say most the central banks in the world biggest for people who are still have a huge reserve like japan, china, Russia, or probably even middle as coming and joining the effort with the fed.
Ok, you are talking about has a global fan everynbody with the countries like japan and china with a huge amount of reserve, can they use some of those some toxic assets and US debts?
EDGAR CHUAN: I would say most of the central banks in the world for people who still have a huge reserve like Japan, China, Russia or probably Middle East, if they can come in and join the effort with the Fed.
我认为，现在世界上大多数国家的中央银行像日本、中国、俄罗斯、或者可能中东地区，都拥有巨大的货币储备，他们都有能力同美联储一起努力对抗危机。
埃德加·陈：我会说世界上大多数的央行仍然拥有非常丰富的储备，像日本、中国、俄罗斯还有中东，如果他们可以参与进来和联邦储备系统一起努力的话。
HOST: Ok, so you're talking about perhaps a global fund where everybody, where the countries like Japan and China with huge amounts of foreign reserves can not use some of those to buy the toxic assets of US banks.
好的。你所说的就像一种全球性的基金，但在这个基金中的日本、中国等国家的巨额外汇储备是不可能拿出来购买美国银行的有毒资产的呀。
主持人：好，你谈到了一个全球资本的问题，每个人，像日本和中国这样拥有大量外汇储备的国家可以用部分储备来购买美国银行的不良资产。
Yes, maybe they can do it very well,or perhaps they can something you know sit by another, to do this to take care of this kind of thing, that would dive again.
EDGAR CHUAN: Yes, or maybe they can do, you know, a very wild idea, perhaps they can do something you know set up another IMF fund to do, to take care of this kind of thing. That would definitely…
是的。但是他们也是有可能买的呀，这是一个很疯狂的点子，也许他们会建立另一个货币资金组织像IMF去做这件事情。这将肯定会……….
埃德加·陈：没错，也许他们会这么做，你知道，这是一个很大胆的想法，你知道，也许他们可以成立另一个国际货币基金组织来打理这类事情。那肯定会……
But this is pretty tough , I mean there’s no suitability
That is gonna have more you know a lot of people are talking about that.
Does a low interest rate work?
Low interest rate,I don’t think it’s ganna work.a lot of people who are still suffering you know low interest rates,it’s not going to provide you confidence.
Take a for an example, if you would buy you would buy to spend money or to buy or to sell a house, you don’t worried about bottom price. Do you have gasp into the market now.
HOST: It's pretty tough, I mean there's no silver bullets.
这特别困难，我的意思是没有银弹。
EDGAR CHUAN: That is going to have a more hazard.
这是有点冒险。
HOST: So lower interest rates won't work?
更低的利率会起作用吗？
主持人：这很困难。我是说并没有什么法宝。
埃德加·陈：这样做就得冒更多的风险。
主持人：所以说低利率于事无补？
EDGAR CHUAN: Lower interest rate, I don't think that is going to work because for a lot of people who are still suffering in it, lower interest rate is not going to provide you the confidence. Take for example, if you were to buy, to spend the money, to buy or to sell a house but you don't know where the bottom price is do you think you will have the guts to enter into the market now? No.
我认为，没什么用，因为许多人都正深受其苦。低利率政策并不会增强我们的信心。举例来说，你准备买或者卖一个房子，但是你不知道价格什么时候见底，你还有信心进入这个市场吗？没有。
埃德加·陈：我认为低利率是行不通的，因为对很多仍然受它影响的人来说，低利率并不能带给你信心。举个例子，如果你购物，你去消费，买房或卖房，而你却不知道底价是多少，你觉得你现在有勇气进入市场吗？你没有。
Where do you see this going, firstly in the market, secondly in the economies.
I would say if firstly is definitely market. Because the market is the very immediate reaction.
So you expect to go further down.
I think we’ll have to go further down, because for if any market have a rally, it’s ganna be a relief rally.
A lot of people will take chance to sell down, they would rather hold cash.
Right now back to the fundamental “ cash is King”, everybody want to hold cash in. I really see in watch other lateral development in US or Europe.
HOST: So where do you see this going, firstly in the markets and secondly in the economies?
你是在哪看出来的，是先在金融市场上，然后再到实体经济体中吗？
EDGAR CHUAN: I would say if, firstly is definitely market because market is very immediate reaction.
可以说，肯定是先在金融市场观察到，因为金融市场通常都会做出非常快的反应。
HOST: So expect it to go further down.
所以，你认为经济将进一步下滑。
主持人：你是从哪里看到这个趋势的，首先是通过市场，其次再通过经济状况吗？
埃德加·陈：我认为，首先肯定是通过市场，因为市场的反应非常迅速。
主持人：所以期望它进一步降价。
EDGAR CHUAN: I think it will have to go further down because if any of the market have a rally, it's going to be a relief rally. And a lot of people will take the chance to sell down because they would rather hold cash and right now it's back to the fundamental 'cash is king' and everybody wants to hold cash in hand and really see and watch what later on developments in US or in Europe.
是的，肯定会继续下滑。因为当任何一个市场出现一波反弹，都只是减轻痛苦的反弹。并且许多人都会称此机会卖出，他们宁愿持有现金。现在又回到现金为王的时代了。每一个人都希望持有现金观望，看今后的美国和欧洲的经济形势如何发展。
埃德加·陈：我觉得它会进一步降价，因为如果任何一个市场反弹的话，都会是缓缓反弹的。很多人会抓住机会抛售，因为他们宁愿把现金握在手上，现在又回归了"现金为王"的基本原则，每个人都想把现金握在手上，然后看看美国和欧洲稍后会有什么进展。
Will be the recession expected in aisa just be a slow grow?
HOST: And there will be recession you expect in Asia or just be slower growth?
你认为亚洲会陷入衰退还是仅仅会放慢发展的步伐？
I think asia will have a slow growth, we’ll will, returning to the recession ,I think that that that may not be the case but again.
We would say you definitely see the economies’ slow down, significantly a lot of people you know lost when last year when when all the market has a boom and we are talking about all Asia has a coupling from. In US and Europe which is impossible.
No de coupling
Try with this card investment management service here in hongkong aisa
EDGAR CHUAN: I think Asia will have a slower growth but will it really turn into a recession, I think that may not be the case, but again we will say that you will definitely see the economies slow down significantly, and a lot of people you know the last two years, when all the markets were having a bull run were talking about how Asia is decoupling from US and Europe which is impossible.
我认为亚洲将会放慢增长速度。是否会陷入衰退，大概不会。但是我们再强调一下，世界经济发展减速非常明显，许多人在过去两年的牛市中都说，亚洲市场走势与欧美市场的走势是相互脱钩，这是不成立的。
主持人：你觉得亚洲市场会不景气吗？或者说只是经济增速放缓？
埃德加·陈：我觉得亚洲的经济增速会放缓，但是究竟会不会经济危机，我想得视情况而定。不过我们还会说你肯定会看到经济增长大幅度减缓，你知道，还在前两年所有的市场都是牛市时，很多人就已经在讨论亚洲与美国及欧洲脱钩是不可能的事情。
HOST: No decoupling. 没有隔离。
MAN: Exactly. 对。
HOST: Edgar, as always, great to have you on the show. Edgar Chuan with Descartes Investment Services here in Hong Kong.
Edgar，很高兴您到我们的节目接受采访。Edgar，descartes香港投资服务公司。
主持人：不会脱钩的。
埃德加·陈：没错。
主持人：埃德加，和往常一样，非常感谢你来到我们的节目，香港笛卡尔投资服务公司，埃德加·陈。
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发表于 2009-5-3 22:23
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